Australian Exports Benefit From PRC Import Surge

摘要

Despite weaker economic conditions, export volumes from Australia have risen in 2009. In the April and May MSRs we highlighted the role China has played in (1) boosting both steam and coking coal imports (especially from Australia), as opposed to higher-priced domestic products, and (2) limiting exports, prompting many NE Asian utilities to look to other sources (including Australia) for coal supply.rnShipments of steam coal (including anthracite) from Australia between January and April are up almost 15% on the same period last year. With China boosting demand, spot FOB prices of Newcastle coal have climbed to the mid-$70s/t. When combined with increased freight costs, however, this may now remove the price advantage enjoyed by Australian steam coal exporters over domestic producers (some coal media sources are currently speculating this may be already happening), implying PRC import demand would start to decline in the 3q.