Black Sea to offset EU & US losses

摘要

The prospects for Black Sea grain exports have improved further in the past few months due to favourable growing conditions producing higher yields. At the same time there have been increased expectations for reduced exports from the US and EU due to both increased competition from the Black Sea in the market and the poor growing conditions that plagued US and European crops earlier this year. The USDA's September projections for 2011/12 wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine re-affirmed earlier revisions to 16 Mt and 9.0 Mt respectively. Such levels are much improved on last year's levels of 4.0 Mt and 4.3 Mt respectively but are still short of the 18.6 Mt and 9.3 Mt exported in 2009/10. Competitive Russian prices are helping demand for its supplies while EU demand for feed wheat is boosting the outlook for exports from Ukraine.