Strong Chinese Imports Forecast

摘要

Previous MSR's have highlighted forecasts for large grain surpluses in most of the major global exporting nations in 2014/15. Clearly, for these crops to translate into higher seaborne grain trade will require increased demand from key importers, especially China, where historically high grain harvests are also anticipated. Reflecting increased domestic grain production, China will see its total import volumes decline slightly year-on-year in 2014/15 (see chart), according to recent forecasts made by both the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and International Grains Council (IGC). Combined grain imports of 86.5 Mt are predicted for 2014/15 (-1.4 Mt y-o-y) as a further rise in soyabean arrivals fails to fully offset a sharp decline in wheat imports. Nonetheless, overall annual volumes are projected to be the second highest on record.