Changing needs for housing delivery

摘要

We stand on the cusp of perhaps the biggest housing crisis in a generation. The Government's own statistics (via the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Live Tables 244) tell the story of the devastating impact of market cycles on new-build housing delivery. In 1979 the balance of delivery of 209,460 homes was 57% private enterprise and 35% local authority, with 8% by housing associations. By 1989 we relied on the private sector for 86% of the 179,360 homes that marked peak output pre-1990 recession. By 2007 local authorities were delivering just 0.0014% of new homes. The fragility of this arrangement was highlighted by the 'great recession' of 2008/2009, which swept away a third of SME housebuilders. With further consolidation since, just 10 housebuilders were responsible for 47% of new homes built in the country last year. With 178,800 new homes built in 2019, it is clear we lack the capacity and models to deliver the 300,000 annual output we need, even before we factor in the economic impact of COVID-19, with some commentators predicting at least a 30% reduction in homes delivered next year. In times past, national crisis required great public sector intervention and fortunately, since 2012, resurgent local authorities are already building once again. The University College London research paper Local Authority Direct Delivery in 2019 drew on responses from 142 different councils (40% of England's 353 authorities) of which 69% were directly engaged in housing delivery, with 8,992 homes built by 83 councils.