Question: What has changed over the last seven years in the anti-ship missile market? Answer: Not a whole lot. Operation Unified Protector, the air campaign to support Libyan rebels fighting the Qadhafi regime, provided little opportunity for NATO to demonstrate the capability of its anti-ship missiles. This was also the situation during Operation Desert Storm. The most significant recent success of an anti-ship missile came in July 2006 when Hezbollah attacked an Israeli warship. Hezbollah gunners damaged the INS Hanit with a C802 missile provided by Iran. Still, the media's attention soon turned to other topics. The continued lack of media attention to this market, even among defense publications, does not mean it has ceased to exist. In fact, this market is slowly undergoing a fundamental change and evolving into something new. For decades, anti-ship missiles were heavily produced by the navies of the West and the former communist bloc. These missiles were seen as the primary weapon of surface combatants and naval aircraft for use in shipping. This situation changed with the fall of the Soviet Union. As the chances for a major naval war receded, demand for anti-ship missiles fell. Nevertheless, anti-ship missiles remain a key weapon in the arsenals of navies. The value of this market will grow over the forecast period to $16.7 billion. The number of missiles produced during this time will exceed 16,000 units. The leading providers will remain those companies located in North America and Europe, namely Boeing, MBDA, Lockheed Martin, and Tactical Missiles Corporation. Although production volume has declined, these firms still offer the most capable missiles on the market. The number of missiles Boeing will build over the forecast period is considerably lower than during the Cold War. Boeing lost U.S. Navy orders for its Harpoon Block Ⅲ but continues to build its Block II. The Harpoon's capability to strike land and sea targets could make it very attractive to Asia and the Middle East. MBDA in Europe has brought almost all of the continent's anti-ship missile programs under one roof. The company hopes to build on the success of the Exocet by offering further improvements. Besides its traditional anti-shipping role, the Block 3 Exocet will have a coastal attack capability. MBDA believes these features will put the Block 3 in a good position to meet the demand from existing operators for a more capable anti-ship/strike missile as well as to attract new customers. Russia is attempting to expand its share of the anti-ship missile market, but results thus far have been mixed. Russia remains overly focused on winning contracts from big customers, such as China and India, and from countries within the former Soviet sphere. Unless Russia breaks out of this mold, it will never secure the kind of market share its Western competitors enjoy. Saab and Kongsberg will achieve a moderate level of success selling anti-ship missiles, but they are not expected to occupy this market's top positions. Still, both companies are seen as formidable by their competitors, and they cannot be taken lightly. The remainder of the market is made up of companies that supply their missiles almost exclusively to their home governments, such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. Market Outlook. Forecast International expects the anti-ship missile market to generate a total of $16.7 billion over the forecast period, with production surpassing 16,000 units. Statistically, the leading producers of anti-ship missiles are the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China. Systems designed by these two countries will account for over 30 percent of the anti-ship missiles produced, yet export orders for these missiles will be low. In almost all cases, Western systems, if available, are the preferred solution. The companies with the most significant market penetration will be MBDA and Boeing, followed by Saab and Kongsberg. As in other segments of the missile market, sales of anti-ship systems have been declining for a number of years. This decline has stopped, and production will climb throughout the forecast period. Many countries have delayed procurement of new anti-ship missiles for financial reasons or because such purchases are a low priority. In the future, the number of anti-ship missiles sold annually may not reach the levels achieved during the Cold War, but the value of new orders could easily surpass those of the past market.
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