The Future of Raw Material Prices and the World Economy

摘要

Raw material prices dramatically increased in the last quarter of 2001. It has been argued that growth of the world economy and expansion of foreign trade are major effective factors in increasing raw material prices. On the other hand, from the last quarter of 2001, growing political instability and regional battles have also placed pres- sure on prices. In reality, the uncertain trend of raw material prices is not today's issue; the problem has been present in recent centuries. However, as a result of the collapse of the world monetary system in the 1970s, uncertainty of exchange rates and interest rates have increased these fluctuations of raw material prices and have had a negative effect on the world economy. Our aim is to evaluate the issue of raw material prices in the light of developments in the world economy and to expose the uncertainty and the risks inherent in projections of raw material price fluctuations.