For Better or Worse - Towards a New Nuclear Paradigm

摘要

With the demise of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the increasing doubts about the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) being renewed after it expires in February 2021, we are heading towards a fundamental reshuffling of the nuclear balance at the global level. A new nuclear paradigm is taking shape and the key question is whether this will work towards maintaining peace, or at least further reducing the risk of a nuclear conflict, or will it rather put us all on an accelerated path towards Armageddon. I harbour no pretension of being able to provide a clear-cut answer to this question. I will nonetheless try to analyse the goals of the main nuclear powers, to the extent that such are either openly announced or can be reconstructed, with a reasonable degree of confidence, based on these powers' actions.