Exact Solutions for the Effectiveness of Multiple Weapons Against an Imprecisely Located Point Target

摘要

When a difference between the actual location and the expected location of a target is anticipated, it may not be a good idea to fire all weapons at the expected target location. The probability of damaging the target may be increased by firing weapons in a pattern around the expected target location. This paper considers four methods of attacking a point target with multiple weapons and derives exact solutions for the probability of damage when the target location error (TLE) is significant. Dispersed multiple aim points are considered for the last two methods, while a single aim point is considered for the first two methods. We apply the exact analytical solutions to examine and to compare the effectiveness of conventional artillery shells and precision-guided munitions against a point target located with significant TLE. The effect of dispersing aim points is not so substantial for conventional artillery shells, but it is very apparent for precision-guided munitions. The analysis results treated in this paper would be a guide for weaponeers planning attacks on a point target with a large TLE.