The emergence of co-existing debt cycle regimes in an economic growth model

摘要

This paper aims to provide a modeling framework that keeps track of the interdependency between firms' external financing structure and the state of the economy. Accordingly, it is based on the well-known Kaleckian model which is combined with a modeling strategy of a sentiment index that was proposed by Franke (2012, 2014). The sentiment influences firms' subjective sales expectations and thus their planned level of investment. As it turns out, the non-linear model set-up appears to be flexible in the sense that it is able to generate different interesting dynamic scenarios. It is shown that it may produce (a) sentiment-driven business cycle fluctuations, including endogenously determined Minsky-Koo-kind recessions, and, more interestingly, (b) two distinct economic environments that exist contemporaneously: a low-' and high-indebted' regime.