EXPLORING 'WEAK SIGNALS' AS POTENTIAL CHALLENGES IN TRANSPORT: AN INVENTORY OF POTENTIAL FUTURE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS

摘要

This article assesses the most likely technological developments in transport, not only by investigating current innovations but also by observing different approaches to confronting future developments. The article discusses technology forecasting and the meaning of environmentally sound technologies; some insights into technology development and the relevance of technological forecasting; the factors that influence technology development in transport; and, in this context, differentiation between exploration, expectation and forecasting. It goes on to identify, from four different perspectives, major developments of strategic relevance for the transport sector that might arise in the longer term. An assessment is made of the consequences of these observations for the implementation of innovations in transport.