The secret of buying: be dynamic

摘要

Making business decisions can go two ways, either gut instinct or a more scientific approach. Opting for the latter, Ian Staples and David Chopping show how advanced risk modelling can give security in an insecure world. Every time a shipowner decides to buy - or not buy - a vessel, he needs to compare the price with the value he expects to be able to generate. In effect, he has to compare the current market price with his forecast of what the vessel will be able to earn, and the value he expects to be able to realise on disposal. This can be done simply by an intuitive feel for how the market is likely to move. But it can also be based on a more formal assessment.