Deterring North Korea with Non-Nuclear High-Tech Weapons: Building a '3K+' Strategy and Its Applications

摘要

The Republic of Korea (ROK) Ministry of National Defense (MND) should support and guarantee the process of peaceful and diplomatic denuclearization by providing a perfect deterrence posture that can cope with any contingencies, while being especially cautious so as not to ignite political tensions. For that purpose, strengthening the ROK's own deterrence capability against the North Korean military threat is becoming more and more important. This is especially true because the North Korean ICBM capability, which is assessed to be completed in a short time, is believed to be able to pose the so-called "decoupling situation" on the Peninsula, by an increasing number of people. Although it is not certain the decoupling may really happen even if the North does finally achieve ICBM capability, this is a problem that cannot be ignored, since more and more people are worrying about it. Several non-nuclear high-tech weapon systems and masterful tactics to apply them in the Korean situation raise the possibility of dramatically strengthening the overall deterrence posture against North Korean threat without any additional nuclear measures. From now on, the ROK MND should formulate a new version of the ROK's own deterrence strategy against the North, the "3K+" which tries to utilize the new possibilities provided by several conventional high-tech weapons, together with the pre-existing 3K systems (Kill Chain, KAMD, and KMPR). The new strategy should be built more systematically to overwhelm any possible North Korean military ambitions in advance, defeating any and all military capabilities that the North is expected to strive for in the future. As Sun Tzu taught, the highest strategy can frustrate the enemy into surrendering, even without a fight.