Sensitivity Analysis of Major Parameters on Piping Failure Probabilities

摘要

In-service inspections (IST) of pipes in the nuclear power plants are currently performed based on mandated requirements in the ASME Section XI, which is based on deterministic approach of the critical welds. The 20 years of ISI experience in U.S.A. has revealed less correlation between the critical welds and actual failures, and much conservatism in current ISI requirements. To reduce those problems, risk-informed ISI technology has been developed and proved to be useful. This paper presented a method for predicting piping failure probabilities in an application of risk-informed ISI, and analyzed the effect of input parameters on piping failure probabilities. Results generated using this approach revealed that the calculated failure probabilities can be sensitive to the different types of stressors, crack size distribution, inspection interval, etc..