Port Construction Planning: Automated System for Projecting Expansion Needs

摘要

The growing demand for maritime transport imposes several challenges to port authorities, including reducing port congestion, planning for expansion projects, and allocating budgets for such capital projects. To address these construction planning problems, there is a vital need to identify the factors that influence port congestion and understand their impact on port expansion and reconstruction planning. This study focuses on: (1) identifying the decision variables that influence port expansion and reconstruction decisions; (2) modeling the impacts of these variables on the decision to expand a port; and (3) developing an automated system to forecast port expansion needs. The automated system employs a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model that is designed to predict port performance, given a projected increase in cargo demand. The developed model is empirically validated using real data acquired from Shuwaikh Port. For the projected 1.8% increase in cargo demand, it was concluded that the port will need expansion in 8 years. The present study contributes to the core body of knowledge of port construction engineering and management by providing a novel model and a practical automated system for projecting port expansion needs using real-time port data. This should prove useful to port authorities and construction planners as it facilitates the advancement of port construction planning, enhances port operational safety, and provides the capacity to predict port expansion and modernization needs.