Statistical Estimation of the Service Life of Water Treatment Systems

摘要

The timely restoration of water treatment devices is a prerequisite for sustainable water supply to consumers. Difficulties in estimating the moments of such recovery are associated with variability in the failure rate of mechanical systems. In this regard, two statistical approaches are proposed in this paper for scheduling the frequency of such recovery: estimating the constant frequency of maintenance for different groups of identical devices or systems (standard maintenance) or evaluating this frequency from the actual performance of individual devices (state maintenance). It is shown what approach should be used depending on the goal: to prevent devices from operation with expired service life or to make better use of the resource capabilities of these devices. It is also shown that the actual service life may significantly differ from its average value for groups of similar systems due to the influence of variability in the composition of source water and the characteristics of working units. Some limitations and recommendations on the practical implementation of forecasting the moments of unacceptably high losses in the performance-controlling parameter of water treatment devices and systems are considered. The novelty of this study is that it is based on the provisions of reliability theory, which provides a substantiated approach to the formation of a maintenance regime: the matter that becomes more urgent when designing water treatment technologies and equipment operation. The transition to these provisions, even in "advanced" areas of technology such as aerospace industry, encounters a number of difficulties, which the authors have managed to overcome in the case of water use problems to recommend the relevant specialists to pay attention to the potential efficiency of this approach and its use in the practice of operating water treatment devices and systems.