Land-Transfer Events' Effects on the Housing Market: Empirical Evidence from Hangzhou, China

摘要

The relationship between land and housing prices in China is gaining considerable interest because of the rapid development of the real estate industry, but a clear consensus about this topic is yet to be reached. This paper uses an event study method based on price discovery theory to examine the temporal and spatial effects of land price on the surrounding housing prices in Hangzhou at the micro level. We used geographic information system (GIS) technology to match the data of 237 residential lands that transferred during the period from 2008 to 2014 and 660 residential communities in Hangzhou. Forty hedonic price models were established to quantitatively analyze the impact of land price on housing price from the dimensions of both time and space. Empirical results indicated that land transfer events exert a significant signal effect on the housing market; that is, the signal of land transfer price can quickly pass on to its surrounding areas, thus affecting the housing price. The impact also shows an obvious diffusion effect in space. This paper attaches special importance to the micromechanism between the land and housing markets, complementing existing studies that mainly used the data at the national or city level. The results of this study can offer governments useful recommendations for formulating relevant policies and provide developers with information for making good investment decisions.