Spatial Distribution of Tourism Activities: A Polya Urn Process Model of Rank-Size Distribution

摘要

The power law is considered one of the most enduring regularities in human geography. This article aims to develop an understanding of the circumstances that may result in the power law distribution in the geography of tourism activities. The finite Polya urn process is adopted as a device to model the preferential attachment process in the flow of tourists. The model generates a rank-size distribution of tourism regions along with intuitively appealing parameters. Empirically examined using two independent sets of Australian inbound and outbound tourism data, results show that the rank-size distribution emerging from the finite Polya urn process is a superior fit to the conventional power law curve. This rank-size distribution (termed the Polya urn process model of visitor distribution) is compatible with tourist behaviors such as habit persistence and word-of-mouth effects, and can be adopted by tourism modelers to predict and efficiently summarize the spatiality of tourism.