Land-use and socio-economics as determinants of traffic emissions and individual exposure to air pollution

摘要

This paper presents a modeling framework developed for the City of Montreal, Canada, and is intended to quantify two indicators that can explain the spatial distribution of traffic-related air pollution at a metropolitan level. The indicators are estimated at the level of the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) and include: (1) the average level of emissions generated per individual and (2) the level of emissions occurring in a zone as a proxy for air pollution exposure. A regional traffic assignment model is extended with capabilities for emission modeling at an individual trip level while taking into account vehicle (type and age) and trip attributes (road type, speed, and volume). We observe that individuals who generate higher emissions from travel tend to reside in areas with lower exposure to traffic emissions while individuals associated with low levels of travel emissions (e.g. travel smaller distances, conduct less trips, and use alternative modes) reside in areas with high levels of traffic pollution. A regression analysis of the two indicators against a set of land-use and socio-economic variables shows that generated emissions per individual are positively associated with car ownership and larger vehicles, while being negatively associated with ownership of newer vehicles, and location in dense and walkable neighborhoods with high levels of commercial land-use. Meanwhile, exposure to emissions is positively associated with dense and walkable neighborhoods and negatively associated with car ownership and larger vehicles. These findings indicate major inequities in the generation of and exposure to traffic-related air pollution.