Application of a Versatile 'Real-Space' Validation Methodology to a Fire Model

摘要

This paper applies a pragmatic approach to validation of a fire-dynamics model involving computational fluidndynamics, combustion, participating-media radiation, and heat transfer. The validation problem involvesnexperimental and predicted steady-state temperatures of a calorimeter in a wind-driven hydrocarbon pool fire.nSignificant aleatory and epistemic sources of uncertainty in the experiments and simulations exist and arentransformed to a common basis of interval uncertainty for aggregation and comparison purposes. The validationncomparison of experimental and simulation results, and corresponding criteria and procedures for modelnsubstantiation or refutation, take place in “real space” as opposed to “transform space” where various transformnmeasures of discrepancy between experiment and simulation results are calculated and assessed. The versatilemodelnvalidation approach handles difficulties associated with representing and aggregating aleatory and epistemicnuncertainties (discrete and continuous) from multiple correlated and uncorrelated source types, includingn1) experimental variability frommultiple repeat experiments, 2) uncertainty of experimental inputs, 3) experimentalnoutputmeasurement uncertainties, 4) uncertainties that arise in data processing and inference from raw simulationnand experiment outputs, 5) parameter andmodel-formuncertainties intrinsic to themodel, and 6) numerical solutionnuncertainty from model discretization effects.