Risk Assessment Consequences of the Lognormal Distribution of Midtropospheric Wind Changes

摘要

The use of Gaussian probabilities for estimating the risks of unacceptable wind changes for space launch operations results in a serious and nonconservative error. The correct analysis requires probabilities based on the actual distribution, which is lognormal. The lognormality of the distribution also suggests the possibility that reduction of the risk to acceptable levels may require the use of devices such as the DRWP, which can observe these wind changes as they occur without the time delays associated with balloons.