Berman, Ilan. Implosion: The End of Russia and What It Means for America

摘要

The Russian military's foray into the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in late February of 2014 was illustrative of President Vladimir Putin's efforts to reassert the Kremlin's authority in the post-Soviet sphere. Ostensibly, Russian troops were deployed to protect their co-ethnics in the 'near abroad', whose civil rights were threatened by an increasingly nationalist Ukrainian government. The ancestral home of founders of the Russian nation-the Kievan Rus-Ukraine has long been regarded as an integral part of the Russian empire. From surface appearances, Russia seems to have made a great comeback on the international stage under the tutelage of Putin, who seeks to put Russia back on a course of national revitalization. The sober, seemingly disciplined former KGB officer has elevated Russia's stature in foreign affairs. But according to Ilan Berman, the vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council and editor of the Journal of International Security Affairs, this strategic posturing is not sustainable in the long run. In fact, in his book Implosion: The End of Russia and What It Means for America, he predicts that certain trends will challenge the very existence of the Russian nation later this century. According to his analysis, Russia is on the threshold of a monumental transformation driven by demographic decline, radical ethnic and sectarian changes in its population, and a profound shift in the geopolitical balance of power with China. Based on these trends, Berman avers that it is all but inevitable that Russia will play a much smaller role in international affairs in this century. By 2040, he predicts that Russia, as we know it, will become unrecognizable.