The Predictive Value of Disruptive Technology Theory for Digital Publishing in the Traditional Publishing Environment: A South African Case Study

摘要

Digital technologies such as e-books are predicted to have a profound effect on publishing, but they are yet to have a serious impact on the industry. This paper considers the implications of digitization and digital publishing for the trade book publishing industry in South Africa. Through surveys and interviews with South African trade publishers, a picture was developed of the current state of digital publishing. This state is evaluated using the context and predictive value of disruptive technology theory. In this case, digital technology is seen as a disruptive technology in the traditional print publishing environment. As the paper shows, the problems that publishers are experiencing are characteristic of industries faced with disruptive technology. The principles of disruptive technology can therefore be applied to develop recommendations and suggest strategies for publishers planning to venture into digital publishing. Although the focus of the research was on South African trade publishers, the results and recommendations that emerged from the research can be applied to different sectors of publishing as well as to the wider international publishing industry.