Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience

摘要

The goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the drastic Spanish Penal Code reform on the number of road deaths in Spain and the time that the effects might last. This is achieved by means of multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. In short, with this reform Spain might be considered to be closing the final gap that kept it apart from other developed countries as far as the road accident rate is concerned. We have found two different types of effects on Spanish road traffic fatalities. Initially, a month before the reform was passed there was a 24.7 percent fall in Spanish road deaths. After the Bill had been passed and for the following thirteen months, the reduction stayed at a constant sixteen percent. This reform has reduced Spanish road fatalities by 534 in all between November 2007 and December 2008 and the effects will foreseeably continue during 2009.