Heads I win; tails you lose: asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through into import prices

摘要

We analyse exchange rate pass-through into import prices for a large group of 33 emerging and developed economies from 1980, quarter 1, to 2010, quarter 4. Our error correction models permit asymmetric pass-through for currency appreciations and depreciations over three horizons of interest: on impact, in the short run and in the long run. We find that depreciations are typically passed through more strongly than appreciations in the long run, suggesting that exporters may exert a degree of long-run pricing power. This asymmetry is stronger in economies which are more import dependent but is moderated by freedom to trade and a positive output gap. Given that this pass-through asymmetry is welfare reducing for consumers in the destination market, a key macroeconomic implication is that import-dependent economies, in particular, can benefit from trade liberalization.