Revealing global hot spots of technological disasters: 1900-2013

摘要

technological; disaster; spatial; expected risk; fatality; injury; affected; damage%Technological disasters can happen in any country in the world and cause human fatalities, injuries, and economic damages, among other physical and social consequences. As the world adopts more technologies, becomes further industrialized, continues faster urbanization, and has larger and more concentrated population, the occurrences and impacts of technological disasters are likely to be more frequent and severe and call for more scholarly research. However, there is a lack of good models for reliable technological risk analysis, which is the foundation for effective preparation for, sound mitigation of, and quick recovery from technological disasters. This research develops an expected risk analysis model, including a base sub-model and a location quotient sub-model, for nearly 200 countries of the world, using the technological disasters recorded in the EM-DAT database for the period 1900-2013. The sub-models are based on country-level risk impacts in terms of expected fatalities, injuries, people affected, and economic losses, their standard deviations, ranges, and corresponding country percentages and ranks. The sub-models are validated using correlations and scatter plots for the observed and expected risk impacts. The results show that the sub-models perform well by yielding consistent expected risks and related measures, indicating that the expected risk analysis model is a reasonably good alternative to existing risk analysis models.