Assessment of model uncertainty in destinations and travel forecasts of models of complex spatial shopping behaviour

摘要

This paper reports the results of an analysis of model uncertainty in the context of shopping behaviour. This analysis is positioned in a discussion on the evolution of models of spatial shopping behaviour. For different generations of shopping models, the potential of uncertainty analysis is discussed. The actual analysis is based on an application of the Albatross model to the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Characteristic of this model is that shopping trips are embedded in the prediction of daily more comprehensive activity-travel patterns, adding complexity and realism to traditional models of spatial shopping behaviour, such as the Huff and spatial interaction model. Results show that overall the uncertainty associated with the aggregate outcomes of the model is small. It is higher for the total number of visits to selected shopping areas.