Explaining the macro-economy and retail real estate sector dynamic interaction between prime and suburban retail real estate sectors

摘要

Purpose - From the perspective of the macro-economy and real estate sector interaction, this paperrnaims to examine the maturing prime retail real estate sector versus the developing suburban retail realrnestate sector.rnDesign/methodology/approach - This paper adopts a highly specific dynamic computablerngeneral equilibrium model under system dynamics programming to structure the resulting systemrncomplexity within the context of Singapore.rnFindings - Ex post and ex ante model estimations find that the suburban retail real estate sector is onrnthe whole more susceptible to gross domestic product (GDP) growth policy that affects both GDPrnexpansion and retail rents in actual and expectation terms as well as returns.rnResearch limitations/implications - The DCGE model ex ante estimations for the plannedrnscenarios, under low or high GDP growth for the prime and suburban retail real estate sectors,rnenhances understanding of structural factors and dynamic interaction in the maturation phase of thernprime retail real estate sector in Singapore.rnPractical implications - In comparison, Singapore's suburban retail real estate sector is found tornbe in a developing phase.rnOriginality/value - There is limited local research on the underlying relationship between therneconomy and the retail real estate sector, although Singapore's retail sector and retail real estate sectorrnform an integral part of sustainable economic expansion.