Social costs of consumer impatience in Hungary

摘要

In several catching-up Central East European (CEE) countries we experience an expenditure boom explained by arguments referring to intertemporal consumption optimization. We have calibrated a model assuming externalities from foreign direct investment and country risk premium dependent on the debt/GDP ratio. In the model the internal real rate of return of marginal saving turned out to be about 10-15%, higher than what any estimate of the time preference might justify. This result comes from the two externalities, saving and foreign direct investment, which are not internalized by private agents. This calls for savings policy to make the necessary adjustments.