On the Treatment of Uncertainties and Probabilities in Engineering Decision Analysis

摘要

In the present paper an introduction is initially given on the interpretation of uncertainty and probability in engineering decision analysis and it is explained how, in some cases, uncertainties may change type depending on the "scale" of the applied modeling and as a function of time. Thereafter it is attempted to identify and outline the generic character of different engineering decision problems and to categorize these as prior, posterior, and preposterior decision problems, in accordance with the Bayesian decision theory. Finally, input is given to an ongoing discussion concerning the correctness and consistency of uncertainty modeling applied in the most recent reliability updating analysis for structural requalification and inspection and maintenance planning. To this end an outline is given in regard to appropriate uncertainty treatment in the probabilistic modeling for different types of decision problems.