Multi-attribute Evaluation and Choice of Alternatives for Surplus Weapons-grade Plutonium Disposition Using Utility Function at Functional Dependence of Weighting Factors

摘要

Among the major problems of nuclear power are the problems of recycling, safe long-term storage, and the management of nuclear materials. The greatest concern is caused by significant stocks of weapons-grade plutonium, where choosing the method of its dis position can be formalized as a multi-attribute problem of select ing one of thirteen possible alternatives. One of the main goals of the multi-attribute utility func tion analysis is the investigation of the different combinations of assumptions and performance weights for the purpose of rank ing. An additive multi-attribute utility model is most often used in practice, and weights are initially assumed to be constants. In some cases, it may be appropriate to have weights depending on the attribute satisfaction performance value. Investigations of several versions of weighting functions for evaluating and choosing alternatives for the surplus weapons grade plutonium disposition were performed. A sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the robust ness of the rankings relative to changes in the weights in more detail. This series of sensitivity analyses indicated that the rank ing of the alternatives is relatively insensitive to changes in the weighting factors over reasonable ranges. Using weighting functions enlarges the possibilities of the multi-attribute evaluation, making it possible to consider, for ex ample, decision-maker preferences for different alternatives.