Where Are We Headed? Identifying the Critical Uncertainties

摘要

In my last column, “The Alignmentof Vectors: Creating the Perfect Storm” Iexplored the use of a research techniquecalled “vector analysis” of current eventsto provide a basis for projecting whichfuture world we might be entering, andto then utilize strategies previously identifiedfor that future world to either attemptto change the direction of events, or toadapt to that new world.1 The “prequel” tothose extra steps in the scenario processbegins with the development of a focalquestion-what is it that is driving us to tryto understand what future worlds mightexist.2 In developing a focal question, weneed to identify the critical uncertaintiesthat exist in our current world, and the differentpaths those uncertainties might takein shaping the future.3 As we progress inthe development of future scenarios forthe INMM, let’s step back and look at formulatingan initial focal question and someof the critical uncertainties that are facingus today.