The table auto-regressive moving-average model for (categorical) stationary series: statistical properties (causality; from the all random to the conditional random)

摘要

A strictly stationary time series is modelled directly, once the variables' realizations fit into a table: no knowledge of a distribution is required other than the prior discretization. A multiplicative model with combined random Auto-Regressive' and Moving-Average' parts is considered for the serial dependence. Based on a multi-sequence of unobserved series that serve as differences and differences of differences from the main building block, a causal version is obtained; a condition that secures an exponential rate of convergence for its expected random coefficients is presented. For the remainder, writing the conditional probability as a function of past conditional probabilities, is within reach: subject to the presence of the moving-average segment in the original equation, what could be a long process of elimination with mathematical arguments concludes with a new derivation that does not support a simplistic linear dependence on the lagged probability values.