Application of the Magnetospheric Model for Numerical Forecast -Validation Using the AE Index

摘要

Real-time magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the solar solarwind-magnetosphere ionosphere (S-M-I) coupling system was used to calculate auroral electrojet (AE) indices. We compared the simulated AE indices for 247 days with the AE indices deduced from the magnetic variations at up to 12 stations located around the auroral latitude. The results show that the sim ulated AE reproduces the observed AE indices well. Of the 247 days, 64% had crosscorrelation coefficients of more than 0.5. The result of the analysis indicates that the prediction of the AE index could be one of the most realistic contests in the space weather forecast. In this paper, the implication of the solarwind-magnetosphere coupling which is deduced from the comparison analysis between the onserved and simulated AE indices is also discussed.