Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions

摘要

What are the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics? We answer this question by estimating non-linear (Smooth-Transition) VARs with post-WWII U.S. data. The relevance of uncertainty shocks is found to be much larger than that predicted by standard linear VARs in terms of (ⅰ) magnitude of the reaction of the unemployment rate to such shocks, and (ⅱ) contribution to the variance of the prediction errors of unemployment at business cycle frequencies. The ability of different classes of DSGE models to replicate our results is discussed.