PREDICTING THE CATCH POTENTIAL OF SKIPJACK TUNA IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN UNDER DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

摘要

Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) constitute an important migratory species that contributes significantly to the economy and the global fishery industry. Skipjack tuna play a vital role in the marine ecosystem, particularly in tropical waters of the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO). However, climate change may affect the characteristics of fishery resources, leading to substantial reallocation and reduction of the biomass of this species in the WCPO. In this study, catch and effort data for skipjack tuna were collected from a purse seine fishery and subsequently analyzed in combination with remote-sensing environmental variables and simulation data from climate models under various scenarios. Generalized additive models were developed to examine the relationships between environmental variations and the species' catch per unit effort and thus evaluate the potential effects of climate change. The catch potential of this stock was estimated under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2015-2050) currently under consideration by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The highest catch potential was associated with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, whereas the catch potential remained relatively stable under the scenario with lower emissions. To sustainably utilize skipjack tuna as a resource, the impact of climate change on the stock under various global warming scenarios should be considered in the assessment and management of fisheries for this species.