News announcements, market activity and volatility in the euro/dollar foreign exchange market

摘要

We study the impact of nine categories of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements on the euro/ dollar return volatility. We highlight and analyze the pre-announcement, contemporaneous and post-announcement reactions. Using high-frequency intraday data and within the framework of ARCH-type models, we show that volatility increases in the pre-announcement periods, particularly before scheduled events. Market activity also significantly impacts return volatility as expected by the theoretical literature on the order flow.