System Dynamics Approach for Hydropower Generation Assessment in Developing Watersheds: Case Study of Karkheh River Basin, Iran

摘要

In many watersheds around the world where the importance of assessing a watershed as a whole is overlooked, new water resources projects are designed solely based on historic flow data. Such projects might fail to operate satisfactorily when designed without considering the uncertainties associated with future hydrologic changes. In this study, a system dynamics model (SDM) is developed to quantify the potential hydrologic impacts of future developments in parts of the Karkheh River basin, Iran, and assess their effects on hydroelectricity generation of existing and projected hydropower plants. Results indicate that upstream development could reduce future annual energy production by 254 GWh. Interbasin water transfer from the nearby Sirvan River basin to the Karkheh River basin was also investigated as a viable option to increase future energy production. Simulation results revealed that an average 88 GWh/year increase in electricity production can be achieved per 100 × 10~6 m~3 of annual environmental flow release out of transferred water from Sirvan to Karkheh River basin.