Agent-based modelling of pedestrian responses during flood emergency: mobility behavioural rules and implications for flood risk analysis

摘要

An agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the interactions between flooding and pedestrians is augmented to more realistic model responses of evacuees during floodwater flow. In this version of the ABM, the crowd of pedestrians have different body heights and weight, and extra behavioural rules are added to incorporate pedestrians' states of stability and walking speed in floodwater. The augmented ABM is applied to replicate an evacuation scenario for a synthetic test case of a flooded shopping centre. Simulation runs are performed with increasingly sophisticated configuration modes for the pedestrians' behavioural rules. Simulation results are analysed based on spatial and temporal indicators informing on the dynamic variations of the flood risk states of the flooded pedestrians, i.e. in terms of a commonly used flood Hazard Rating (HR) metric, variable walking speed, and instability due to toppling and/or sliding. Our analysis reveals significantly prolonged evacuation times and risk exposure levels as the stability and walking speed behavioural rules become more sophisticated. Also, it allows us to identify more conservative HR thresholds of pedestrian instability in floodwater, and a new formula relating walking speed states to the HR for stable pedestrians in floodwater. Accompanying details for software accessibility are provided.