Stochastic multiobjective reservoir operation under imprecise objectives: multicriteria decision-making approach

摘要

Multiobjective reservoir operations are generally complex, as they are often associated with anlarge quantity of uncertain factors in combination with noncommensurable objectives. In thisnstudy, fuzzy-state stochastic dynamic programming (FSDP) and multicriteria decision-makingn(MCDM) are integrated to derive operating rules for a single multiobjective reservoir operationnproblem. The model addresses uncertainties due to randomness in inflows and imprecision innvariables’ discretization and objectives. The FSDP model takes into account uncertainties duento the random nature of inflows and imprecision due to variable discretization. Imprecise andnnoncommensurable objectives are quantified by a set of subjective criteria, the aggregation ofnwhich is performed through an MCDM model, by which possible decisions at every stage of thenFSDP model are evaluated and compared. The proposed approach is then employed in derivingnoperating rules for the Karoon 1 reservoir in south-west Iran and the rules are tested andnevaluated through simulation. Results show the model’s capability in handling different kinds ofnuncertainties involved in real reservoir operation problems.