Estimates of Fertility for South Africa based on Rele Method, 1996-2011

摘要

The paper uses the 1996, 2001 and 2011 censuses and 2007 Community Survey to study levels, trends and differentials in fertility in South Africa using the Rele method that estimates fertility from the reported age distributions At national level, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remained constant at 3.3 children per woman between 1996 and 2001 but declined to 2.4 and 2.2 children per woman in 2007 and 2011, respectively. There are variations in fertility by province and population group. Fertility is lower among the affluent provinces of Gauteng, Western Cape and Free State than the disadvantaged provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Eastern Cape and North West. Fertility has remained largely unchanged in Free State and Mpumalanga and has decreased in all the other provinces with exception of Western Cape and Kwazulu-Natal which suggest a rise in fertility during the period under review. The factors responsible for such a pattern are not fully understood and remain to be established by further research.