Competitive dynamics in face of technological discontinuity: a framework for action

摘要

Following radical technological discontinuities, several equally plausible designs are often seen competing for dominance in a particular industry. How the industry comes to evolve along one of the many possible trajectories is a question that has puzzled researchers for some time. This article addresses the question: How do some designs and technologies attain dominance, even when they are considered 'inferior' in many respects, and become the basis for a sustainable competitive advantage for their proponents? Using examples from practice, we build on existing knowledge of technology evolution to provide a conceptual framework that explains this evolutionary process. We argue that during the era of ferment, competing designs represent mere claims. Each design or claim is mired in numerous controversies. As firms strategize to provide closure to these controversies, their particular design is gradually 'factualized'. Finally, firms are able to retain control over their designs and hence, make it a basis for a sustainable competitive advantage only when the design is positioned as an obligatory passage point. We believe that managers equipped with a better understanding of this process would be in a position to make more informed decisions regarding choice of technologies, adoption of particular standards, or selection of alliance-partners.