Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making: a systematic literature review of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms

摘要

Objective: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aorticnaneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbellnet al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between the findings of studiesnthat was hard to explain.nMethods: A systematic literature review was carried out following PRISMA reporting principles. Healthneconomic models of the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms published betweenn2005–2010 were included. Key characteristics were extracted and the models were assessed for qualitynagainst guidelines for best practice by a multidisciplinary team.nResults: Seven models were identified and found to provide divergent guidance. Only three reports met 10 ofnthe 15 quality criteria.nConclusions: Researchers in the field seem to have benefited from general advances in health economicnmodelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement betweennstudies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain anthreat to the credibility of health economic models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of anmodelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant,nsupplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodologicalnchoices made.