Cause Factors in Emergency Process of Fire Accidents for Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation Systems Based on ISM and AHP

摘要

From the perspective of emergency process safety, this paper studies cause factors in the emergency process of fire accidents for oil and gas storage and transportation systems. Through the statistical analysis of actual accident cases and combining expert consultation, 23 influence factors from four aspects-human, material-environment, and management-are determined, and a cause factor system of secondary accidents in the emergency process is established. The relationships between cause factors are analyzed using interpretative structural modeling (ISM), and a nine-layer hierarchical ISM model of cause factors in emergency processes is established. Based on the ISM model, the direct factors, indirect factors, and root factors leading to secondary accidents are obtained. The importance of each factor is decided by calculating the weight with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and management factors and material factors are found to be the main cause factors leading to secondary accidents. Finally, two actual accident cases are taken as examples to analyze their cause factors in the emergency process using the established ISM model. Research results provide a scientific basis for determining the mechanisms of secondary accidents in oil and gas storage and transportation systems and realizing active prevention and control in the emergency process in advance.