Dynamic Nonlinear Modelization of Operational Supply Chain Systems

摘要

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is an important activity in all producing facilities and in many organizations to enable vendors, manufacturers and suppliers to interact gainfully and plan optimally their flow of goods and services. To realize this, a dynamic modelling approach for characterizing supply chain activities is opportune, so as to plan efficiently the set of activities over a distributed network in a formal and scientific way. The dynamical system will result so complex that it is not generally possible to specify the functional forms and the parameters of interest, relating outputs to inputs, states and stochastic terms by experiential specification methods. Thus the algorithm that will presented is Data Driven, determining simultaneously the functional forms, the parameters and the optimal control policy from the data available for the supply chain. The aim of this paper is to present this methodology, by considering dynamical aspects of the system, the presence of nonlinear relationships and unbiased estimation procedures to quantify these relations, leading to a nonlinear and stochastic dynamical system representation of the SCM problem. Moreover, the convergence of the algorithm will be proved and the satisfaction of the required statistical conditions demonstrated. Thus SCM problems may be formulated as formal scientific procedures, with well defined algorithms and a precise calculation sequence to determine the best alternative to enact. A "Certainty equivalent principle" will be indicated to ensure that the effects of the inevitable uncertainties will not lead to indeterminate results, allowing the formulation of demonstrably asymptotically optimal management plans.