Johannes von Kries's Conception of Probability, its Roots, Impact, and Modern Developments: Introduction

摘要

The papers in this special section originate from a two-day conference on "Johannes von Kries's conception of probability, its roots and impact", held in September 2012 in Bonn. Johannes von Kries (1853-1928) was a renowned physiologist and professor at Freiburg, who also worked on the methodology and foundations of science. In 1886, he published his "Die Principien der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Eine logische Untersuchung" (The Principles of the Probability Calculus. A Logical Investigation). This book had considerable influence at its time and was re-issued unaltered in 1927. In 1916, von Kries concisely described his core ideas on probability also in a comprehensive work called "Logik. Grundziige einer kritischen und formalen Urteilslehre" (Logic. Outlines of a Critical and Formal Theory of Judgment). In the "Principien", von Kries is less concerned with the calculus of probability-there are almost no formulas contained in the book-than with the meaning and background of ascriptions of numerical probability. In modern terms, his issue was with the truth conditions of such statements. Von Kries suspected that precise numerical statements of probability are without proper foundation in many fields, and he set out to clarify the circumstances in which they are meaningful. He rejects probabilities as subjective degrees of confidence ("psychologism"), the classical, Laplacean account ("logical interpretation") as well as the relative frequency theory ("empirical interpretation") of probability. He then puts forward, carefully explicates and explores an original proposal, which explains the importance of the book.