A Simplified Pricing Model for Volatility Futures

摘要

We develop a general model to priee VIX futures contracts. The model is adapted to test both the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross formulations, with and without jumps. Empirical tests on VIX futures prices provide out-of-sample estimates within 2% of the actual futures price lor almost all futures maturities. We show that although jumps are present in the data, the models with jumps do not typically outperform the others; in particular, we demonstrate the important benefits of the CEV feature in pricing futures contracts. We conclude by examining errors in the model relative to the VIX characteristics.