Calculation and Updating of Reliability Parameters in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

摘要

The internal events of nuclear power plant are complex and include equipment maintenance, equipment damage etc. These events will affect the probability of the current risk level of the system as well as the reliability of the equipment parameter values so such kind of events will serve as an important basis for systematic analysis and calculation. This paper presents a method for reliability parameters calculation and their updating. The method is based on binomial likelihood function and its conjugate beta distribution. For update parameters Bayes' theorem has been selected. To implement proposed method a computer base program is designed which provide help to estimate reliability parameters.