ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND ELASTIC RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF LAND USE CHANGE IN BEIJING, CHINA

摘要

The ecological risk assessment is vital to rational use of land resources, and environmental management. In this study, the ecological risk of land use change, including the spatial and temporal distribution, in Beijing, China from 2001-2013, was analysed using geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS). Spatial autocorrelation analysis and elastic response analysis of ecological risk was conducted. Results showed that the distribution of ecological risk in Beijing was closely related to local land use patterns. The ecological risk in northwest area of Beijing was relatively lower, whereas that in the southeast was higher. The global spatial autocorrelation coefficient (Moran I) of Beijing in 2001, 2007, and 2013 were 0.74, 0.58, and 0.72, respectively. Local spatial autocorrelation indicated that the region with the highest ecological risk and elastic response was distributed in the southeast area of Beijing. Hot spot analysis showed a high degree of consistency in the hotspots of ecological risk in 2001-2013, but the difference between cold spots is significant. In 2001, 2007, and 2013, the elastic response of ecological risk of land use change presented spatial and temporal differentiations. This study provides a preliminary data support for rational land use and sustainable urban development.