Advanced hydrological streamflow simulation in a watershed using adjusted radar-rainfall estimates as meteorological input data

摘要

Among the input data of the watershed model for simulating changes of flowrate in the watershed, weather input data, especially input data related to rainfall, are the most important. Therefore, it is important to ensure the accuracy of rainfall input data to increase the accuracy of the watershed model results. Securing rainfall measurements with finer spatial and temporal resolutions is important in predicting flowrate variations at a sub-catchment, especially as they relate to global and local climate changes in weather conditions such as rainfall depth, rainfall intensity, etc. In this study, adjusted radar-rainfall estimates were suggested as alternative input data for watershed modeling. Through a statistical analysis of the representativeness of a ground rainfall measurement (10 km × 10 km grid), the necessity of radar-rainfall estimates (2 km × 2 km grid) was identified. By applying calibration factors to initial radar-rainfall estimates and comparing adjusted radar-rainfall estimates with ground rainfall measurements, it was proven that adjusted radar-rainfall estimates could be used as input data for watershed simulations (NSE ＞ 0.92; n = 12). Adjusted radar-rainfall estimates and ground rainfall measurements were used as input data of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to predict flowrate variations at the outlets of a tributary and the entire watershed. As a result, the accuracies of the simulation results were improved for the outlets of a tributary and the entire watershed (NSE: 0.33 to 0.48 and 0.19 to 0.55, respectively). To obtain more reliable rainfall data, radar images easily accessible to users were applied, and the accuracy of the data was increased by applying simple equations to numerical data extracted from radar image processing. Additionally, the applicability of the adjusted radar-rainfall estimates was demonstrated by comparing the modeling results using the suggested rainfall data and existing ground-based rainfall data. The suggested methodologies are expected to contribute to more accurately predict the possibility of flood disasters in other regions and countries lacking infrastructure related to rainfall measurements and to establish appropriate countermeasures.