Quantitative analysis of the precise energy conservation and emission reduction path in China's iron and steel industry

摘要

A precise energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) path in industrial sector contains two aspects: applying effective ECER measures and focusing on processes with significant ECER potential. However, most studies have investigated the ECER effects of an individual measure or only evaluated industrial-level ECER potential. Therefore, the objective of this study is to find a precise ECER path in China's iron and steel industry through quantitative analysis methods. First, this article adopts scenario analysis to simulate situations where different ECER measures are adopted and designs calculation methods to quantitatively evaluate the ECER effects in each scenario in 2020 and 2025. Second, through analysis of the application of ECER measures to certain processes, we calculate the ECER potential of different individual processes in the iron and steel industry. In addition, the conservation supply curve method and the quadrant method are used to measure the level of advanced technology application. The results show that: (1) for four types of ECER measures, the limitation of production output measure is most effective, contributing to 6.98% and 12.50% decreases in total industrial energy consumption and pollutant emissions in 2020 and 2025; moreover, the contribution of the adjustment of scale structure measure is comparatively low. (2) The sintering and ironmaking processes have strong ECER potential in 2020, while the steel making process also has high ECER potential in 2025. (3) 21 technologies are divided into 4 quadrants based on energy, popularity, and economic performance. In addition, we provide some suggestions for future ECER policies. In sum, this article provides an in-depth example of determining a precise ECER path in an important industry.